As I mentioned in my previous post, there has been a large growth in turbine size in terms of rotor diameter and rated capacity - the last five years in particular has seen a remarkable growth. Here is a quick plot of . The general parabolic shape is what one would expect when considering that power in the wind is proportional to the frontal surface area i.e., the square of the radius. This has resulted in some very large increases in rotor diameter to incrementally increase the rated power; however as the 'power law' kicks in, smaller and smaller increases in diameter will result in the same relative increase in rated power. Extrapolating this simplified argument, this relationship would predict a 10MW turbine with a rotor diameter of around 160m. This isn't a large change in blade length (an approximate 20% increase), however is a doubling of the rated capacity. This therefore suggests that for future turbines the technology focus will be on developing the higher capacity drive-trains: the gearboxes, generators, and associated power electronics required for power generation.
3 comments:
What's really a problem for big turbines is logistics. Transportation and assembly would have to change radically in order to make 10 MWe or bigger turbines the standard. With current logistical constraints, 5 MWe is probably optimal.
Yes, good point. I think this has been a big issue for turbines growing from the kW class to the multi-MW class. This represented diameters from approximately 45m (750kW) to 128m (5MW) - a factor of about three.
However, from 5MW to 10MW this represents diameter changes from 128m to 160m - only a length increase of about 15m.
If you do a search of papers from the 90s, the general concensus was that about 40m diameter was optimal. My experience is that industry adapts and develops, and it's very hard to predict.
Nice post! GA is also my biggest earning. However, it’s not a much.
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